James Harden’s trade to the Brooklyn Nets marks the end of a certain basketball era. Although superstar movement has become easier in recent years, the period between June 2018 and January 2021 saw more players change teams than at any other time in the entire history of the NBA. Five of the seven active MVPs switched teams, some of them more than once, and no fewer than half of the participants in the 2018 All-Star Game moved. This was not just a period of player negotiations. It was a period of extreme superstar negotiations, one that may never be seen again in history.
In 2021/22, things won’t look much better than this year. Yes, there are a number of big free agents, but most of them are in stable situations they chose themselves. Will Jimmy Butler leave the Miami Heat? Would Stephen Curry turn down his deal with the Warriors? Probably not. Sure, the Brooklyn situation could fall apart, and a combination of Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving could test the waters, but that doesn’t seem overly likely either. There are young players in unwanted situations, but they are so far from free agency that their ability to force a deal is limited. To a certain extent, we are about to enter a period of relative superstar stability. The game of musical chairs is over, and most of the league’s best players are where they want to be.
1. Bradley Beal
Beal is the obvious name here. The Wizards are 3-8 and have missed the past two postseasons. He has openly complained about his team’s defense and how it constantly manages to waste his best individual games. His contract only runs through the 2021-22 season, and after giving up a first-round pick to acquire Russell Westbrook, the Wizards have an incentive to get as much as possible back for Beal to ensure a smooth rebuild. Nothing they have said or done so far suggests they are willing to let their star guard go, but history says that if the Wizards don’t turn things around quickly, Beal will force the issue. We can safely assume that.
What is more open to speculation, however, is what impact Beal’s potential availability had on the Harden sweepstakes. Brooklyn paid a premium for Harden, and rightly so. He is a better player than Beal, but he is five years older and much harder to fit into a typical competitive roster. Offenses have to be built around Harden. Beal fits into any offensive system.
2. Kyle Lowry
The 2-8 Raptors have no reason not to consider trading Lowry if they keep losing. Apart from the fact that he is 34 and has an expiring contract, they have the room to re-sign him this offseason, even after a trade, if both sides were interested. For them, dealing Lowry could be as simple as getting assets for giving up on the season and trying again in a year.
That points to Philadelphia, Lowry’s hometown team and a franchise long seen as a point guard away from a championship. Reports linked Lowry to the 76ers when he was a free agent in 2017
Outside the 76ers, there is no obvious match. Lowry doesn’t have to chase a ring. The Clippers would love to reunite him with Kawhi, but don’t have the assets and contracts to make a deal. Miami: if Lowry wants a deal, it’s safe to say he can get one. But finding a team that works for both him and the Raptors won’t be easy.
The usual suspects will probably be involved. That is, if Miami hasn’t found a superstar by then. Pick hoarders like New Orleans and Oklahoma City may also be ready to jump into action. The Suns will probably open the bidding as favorites, given Towns’ friendship with teammate Devin Booker and the presence of a ready-made replacement in DeAndre Ayton, but this far out too much can change to consider anything particularly likely. Ultimately, though, Minnesota will have to reckon with the fact that it has taken Towns to the playoffs only once, and that probably won’t change in the near future. Eventually, his patience will run out.
3. Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota is still building around Towns in an attempt to convince him to stay with the Timberwolves for life. They even traded what now look like two premium assets (the revitalized Andrew Wiggins and their own 2021 first-round pick) to land Towns’ good friend D'Angelo Russell. In the five stages of losing a superstar, this would qualify as “denial.” Neither Russell nor No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards has stood out so far, and although Minnesota’s 3-8 record is hardly representative given Towns’ early-season injury, their 28th-ranked defense will not improve.
Towns is under contract for three more seasons, but that is nothing in the grand scheme of superstar deals. Harden and Paul George both forced their way out with two years still to go, and if Minnesota keeps losing, the end of next season will probably be the unofficial start of the Towns sweepstakes.
4. Zach LaVine
LaVine falls into the rare class of players good enough to actively seek out his favorite destination, but not so good that his own team isn’t open to trading him for the right price, regardless of his wishes. LaVine will be a free agent in 2022 and has never played in a playoff game. One way or another, that will probably change by 2023. That could mean the 4-7 Bulls improve internally, or that LaVine makes his way somewhere else.
The flip side of the Bulls’ rebuild is that Chicago has a new general manager in Arturas Karnisovas and a new coach in Billy Donovan. The entire organization is currently being evaluated, and even if LaVine is the best player, he is also the oldest and most expensive part of the core. He and Coby White are fairly similar players, and few teams are interested in long-term backcourt pairings with so little defensive upside. If the Bulls want to extend their rebuild a little longer and avoid an expensive LaVine extension, they can probably get something close to fair value in a trade right now.
If a LaVine trade happens, it will happen quietly. The Bulls have no reason to turn it into a media circus. But unless they turn things around, he will be available at some point in the next 18 months. That could be through a trade or it could be in free agency, but LaVine will get his chance to join a winner if he wants to.
